What level of economic prosperity and well-being is compatible with global convergence (equality between countries) and the preservation of planetary habitability? Or, to put it differently, what kind of structural transformation is needed and how should we redefine the notions of prosperity and well-being so that the objective of global convergence between countries does not compromise planetary habitability?
In this paper, Lucas Chancel, Cornelia Mohren, Moritz Odersky, Thomas Piketty, and Anmol Somanchi construct a new historical multi-sector global database* covering 57 countries and regions from 1970 to 2025 and develop an input-output projection model to 2100. They study scenarios in which all countries converge to the same per capita GDP level by 2100, and assess under what structural and energy conditions this convergence is compatible with the 2°C climate target. Unlike standard climate-economy models, they examine sectoral reallocation toward immaterial sectors as a climate determinant, rather than treating it as a byproduct of development.
KEY FINDINGS:
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Global convergence to €60,000 (2025 PPP) per capita by 2100 is compatible with limiting warming to 2°C only under very strict conditions combining rapid decarbonization with deep structural transformation (“sobriety”).
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Rapid energy transition alone is not sufficient: achieving the 2°C target also requires a drastic reduction in working hours (roughly halving global annual hours), a major shift in consumption from material to immaterial sectors (e.g. education and health), and substantial changes in food habits (including large reductions in red meat consumption and deforestation).
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The core “Sustainable Convergence” scenario—combining fast decarbonization, sectoral reallocation, worktime reduction, and food system transformation—just stays within the 2°C limit, while alternative scenarios (“Productivist Convergence” and “Persistent Inequality”) lead to temperature increases above 4°C by 2100.
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Structural composition matters as much as GDP levels: a higher-income world with strong shifts toward immaterial sectors can yield lower long-run warming than a lower-income world without such shifts.
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The Sustainable Convergence pathway improves comprehensive well-being (including the value of leisure time and planetary habitability) in all regions relative to higher-GDP but high-emissions alternatives.
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Implementing this pathway would require massive investment—around 10–12% of global GDP annually over 2030–2060—and major distributional and institutional changes, with financing largely borne by the global rich.
*All series constructed in this research are available online in the World Sectoral Economy-Environment Database (wseed.world), together with a replication package including all raw data sources, methods and codes.
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This paper is the sixth in a series of research papers and technical notes that will form the backbone of the Global Justice Report, due to be released in June 2026.
AUTHORS
- Lucas Chancel, Sciences Po (CRIS, Department of Economics) & WIL, PSE
- Cornelia Mohren, Sciences Po (CRIS, Department of Economics) & WIL, PSE
- Moritz Odersky, WIL (World Inequality Lab), PSE (Paris School of Economics)
- Thomas Piketty, WIL (World Inequality Lab), PSE (Paris School of Economics)
- Anmol Somanchi, WIL (World Inequality Lab), PSE (Paris School of Economics)
