Intergenerational Mobility in Spain: Geographic Analysis and Causal Neighborhood Effects

At the heart of a thriving society lies the principle of equal opportunity: the idea that one’s background should not preordain one’s future. An excellent indicator of equality of opportunities is the intergenerational mobility of income, that measures the extent to which the income of parents influences the income of their children as adults.

Javier Soria and Octavio Medina have developed the Spanish Opportunity Atlas 2.0, a new administrative dataset that links millions of parents and children born in the 1980s and 1990s and follows them over more than 25 years using rich tax and census data. Leveraging this unique longitudinal dataset, the authors study intergenerational mobility in Spain—where it is higher, where it is lower, and what factors explain these patterns. From this comprehensive analysis, three main findings emerge:

Key findings:

• Spain ranks in the lower-middle range in international comparisons of intergenerational mobility: the probability that a child born to a family in the bottom income quintile reaches the top quintile in adulthood is approximately 10% in Spain, compared to 7.5% in the United States and 15.7% in Sweden.
• Intergenerational mobility in Spain has declined between the 1980 and 1990 birth cohorts: while parental income became less predictive for those born in the early 1980s, this trend reversed starting with the 1983 cohort, reaching U.S.-level of intergenerational persistence for children born in the early 1990s. This shift is closely related to labor market entry during the 2008 economic crisis, pointing to a scarring effect for children from low-income families.
• Analyzing over 9,000 childhood ZIP codes, the study reveals strong geographic disparities in upward mobility, with the North-East of Spain emerging as the most mobile region and the South-West showing the lowest levels. Major metropolitan areas like Madrid and Barcelona clearly stand out as clusters of higher upward mobility compared to their surrounding areas, suggesting a potential urban advantage in fostering opportunity for disadvantaged populations.
• Using a movers design that exploits variation in the age at which children move with their families to better neighborhoods, the authors estimate that almost 60% of the observed variation in intergenerational mobility across areas is driven by the causal effects of childhood neighborhoods. Overall, they find that the places that best foster economic opportunity for children from low-income families combine dynamic labor markets with low unemployment, a strong presence of industrial sectors, high rates of college and vocational education and socially and spatially integrated environments

 This study is the foundational paper of the Spanish Opportunity lab (Laboratorio de Oportunidades), a research center dedicated to advancing our knowledge on the causes and consequences of social mobility and inequality in Spain using big data. Founded by our WIL Fellow Javier Soria, the Lab is a unique initiative in Europe born from a pioneering collaboration between Opportunity Insights at Harvard University, the World Inequality Lab, the Felipe González Foundation and Future Policy Lab. Interactive maps and more information are available at //labdeoportunidades.com/en

AUTHORS

• Javier Soria, Opportunity Insights, Harvard & Paris School of Economics
• Octavio Medina, Google

MEDIA CONTACT

• press[at]wid.world