enero 27, 2025
Autor: WID.world

Wealth concentration increases the risks of financial crises, new study finds

The aftermath of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis has intensified research interest in the causes of financial crises. While financial crises have often been interpreted as exogenous shocks, a new study suggests that crises are recurrent and structurally predictable events, underpinned by systemic imbalances. Wealth inequality, in particular, contributes to structural vulnerabilities within financial systems and enhance the likelihood of crises through asset price bubbles.

In this paper, Edison Jakurti examines the role of wealth inequality as a predictor of financial crises, analysing data from 18 countries between 1870 and 2020.

Key findings:

  • Even after accounting for key crisis predictors, a one standard deviation rise in the growth of the top 1% wealth share is associated with a 3 to 8 percentage points increase in crisis probability, with results robust across various crisis lists and empirical approaches.
  • Temporal dynamics reveal that while a credit boom can jeopardize the financial system as early as the following year, it takes several years for an increase in private wealth accumulation and wealth concentration at the top to significantly heighten the risk of a systemic bank run, serving as early signals of potential instability.
  • Asset price bubbles can serve as transmission channels, although these relationships vary by asset class and “bubble” definition.
  • These findings suggest that addressing wealth concentration could reduce inequality while acting as a stabilizing force for financial systems, highlighting the importance of incorporating broader inequality metrics in crisis prediction models and exploring policy mechanisms to mitigate systemic risks.

AUTHORS

  • Edison Jakurti, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management Science, Leipzig University

MEDIA CONTACT

  • Alice Fauvel, Communications Manager, press[at]wid.world
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